EUR/USD Bullish Outlook: ING Cites Foreign Inflows and Chart Upside
ING’s global markets research says EUR/USD has sustained upside potential, supported by continued foreign inflows into Eurozone assets. The euro-dollar pair is trading near key technical levels and has shown resilience as global capital flows shift.
Technically, EUR/USD recently broke above 1.0850, turning it into a support zone. A bullish “golden cross” formed when the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average in late 2024. Momentum remains healthy: RSI is reportedly in the 55–65 range, and price is holding above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 2024 low to high. Trading volume patterns also suggest institutional participation.
ING also links EUR strength to foreign demand for European risk. The ECB data highlighted higher foreign investment in Eurozone assets, including:
- Foreign bond buying: about €45 billion in Q4 2024
- Equity inflows: about €28 billion into European stocks in the same period
- Direct investment: Eurozone manufacturing FDI up 12% year-over-year
The macro backdrop supports the view: Eurozone inflation trends toward the ECB’s 2% target, GDP growth stayed resilient, and the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle (since late 2024) contrasts with the ECB’s more cautious stance—reducing the traditional dollar yield advantage.
Key levels to watch: support around 1.0820–1.0840 and 1.0750; resistance around 1.0950–1.0970 and 1.1020. Risks include geopolitical shocks, unexpected data changing policy expectations, and risk-off dollar strength.
For EUR/USD traders, the takeaway is a bullish bias for EUR/USD, but with clearly defined technical levels and event risk in focus.
Bullish
ING的观点指向EUR/USD偏多：一方面，外资持续流入欧元区债券与股市（文中给出约€45B购债、€28B股市流入、制造业FDI同比+12%），形成对欧元的结构性需求；另一方面，技术面也同步转强——1.0850上破并变成支撑，同时出现“黄金交叉”、RSI处于55–65且价格守在61.8%回撤上方。这种“资金面+技术面共振”在过去常见于趋势延续阶段：当市场能持续获得外部买盘并且均线结构改善时，回调更容易在关键支撑位受到承接。
短期上，交易重点会落在1.0820–1.0840与1.0750能否守住，以及上方1.0950–1.0970/1.1020能否被有效突破；若外资流入数据或风险偏好维持，EUR/USD更可能延续上行。长期上，若美联储降息路径与ECB更谨慎的政策差异持续存在，利差叙事仍可能支撑欧元，推动市场逐步下调美元相对优势。
需要注意的反向情景是地缘风险或突然的经济数据导致政策预期翻转，或全球进入risk-off引发美元走强。对加密市场而言，美元走弱往往有利于风险资产情绪与流动性；但若EUR/USD回撤触发避险或美元反弹，也可能带来波动上升。因此总体偏多，但应使用技术位与事件日历进行风控。