Bitcoin Down 2.4% After Fed’s Priced-In 25bp Rate Cut
On October 29, the Federal Open Market Committee cut its federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, a move fully priced in by markets. Bitcoin fell about 2.4% following the announcement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted dissent among FOMC members over a further cut in December, highlighting divisions that may limit liquidity in risk assets. CME Group data show a 56% probability of another rate cut to 3.5%–3.75% by year-end. Historically, Bitcoin has posted average November gains of 46% after rate reductions. However, ongoing US–China trade tensions and mixed Fed signals have subdued crypto market enthusiasm. Traders should monitor upcoming inflation and employment reports, FOMC minutes and geopolitical developments. Bitcoin’s seasonal strength and the potential for dovish Fed policy still present buying opportunities for disciplined, data-driven strategies.
Bearish
Bitcoin’s 2.4% drop following the fed funds rate cut — a move already priced in by markets — combined with highlighted Fed divisions over further easing implies constrained liquidity for risk assets. Short-term trading sentiment is likely bearish as investors digest mixed signals and geopolitical risks. However, Bitcoin’s historical November strength and the potential for future rate cuts provide a counterweight for longer-term price recovery. Overall, the net effect on Bitcoin’s price trajectory is bearish in the near term but tempered by seasonal factors and dovish Fed expectations.