Fed Chair Selection ’Apprentice’: 11 Hopefuls Signal Crypto Shift
The Fed Chair selection process began on September 5 as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen interviews 11 candidates nominated by President Trump. This high-profile event, dubbed the Fed "Apprentice", will shape U.S. monetary policy, financial regulation, and the future of crypto regulation. The transparent release of the candidate list is unusual and may respond to concerns over political influence on the Fed. Contenders include current Fed governor Christopher Waller, White House economist Kevin Hassett, and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. Each brings distinct approaches to monetary policy, with some advocating early rate cuts. The Chicago FedWatch tool now assigns an 89.8% probability to a September rate cut, reflecting shifting expectations. UBS forecasts four cuts totaling 100 basis points by year-end, boosting market liquidity. Three candidates—Waller, BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder, and Jefferies strategist David Zervos—have expressed particular interest in crypto assets. Waller compares cryptocurrencies to “baseball cards” but sees potential in stablecoins with clear reserve rules. Rieder and Zervos both maintain ties to Circle (USDC) and other crypto projects, hinting at a more market-driven regulatory stance. As the Fed Chair selection progresses, traders should watch for shifts in monetary policy and crypto regulations. Rate cuts could spur liquidity into digital assets, while increased clarity on stablecoins may lower legal risks. The outcome will signal how quickly crypto moves from the fringe to mainstream finance.
Bullish
By starting the Fed Chair selection, the market now anticipates more dovish monetary policy. With the FedWatch tool showing an 89.8% chance of a September rate cut and UBS forecasting 100bps of easing by year-end, liquidity is set to increase. Historically, Fed rate cuts and dovish signals have bolstered crypto prices (e.g., post-2019 cuts). Moreover, candidates like Christopher Waller, Rick Rieder, and David Zervos have shown openness to stablecoins and crypto integration, suggesting a friendlier regulatory environment. Their ties to private-sector crypto projects could lower compliance barriers and attract institutional inflows. Although political pressure on Fed independence adds uncertainty, the prevailing expectation of looser policy and clearer stablecoin frameworks is likely bullish for crypto in both the short term—through liquidity-driven rallies—and the long term—via enhanced institutional adoption.