Fed December Rate Cut Odds 69.4%; Bitmine $328M Revenue, Q1 2026 Staking

Published: 2025-11-22 09:19:19 |

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in December has climbed to 69.4%, boosting risk appetite in crypto markets. Bitmine reported $328.16 million in net revenue for fiscal 2025 and plans to launch its Ethereum staking service in Q1 2026, leveraging its US-made validator network. Coinbase announced the acquisition of Solana-based DEX Vector.fun to expand its decentralized trading capabilities beyond Base. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $238 million yesterday, led by Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s mini Bitcoin Trust, while Ethereum ETFs reversed eight days of outflows with $55.7 million entering FETH. Institutional holders increased positions: Cardone Capital added 185 BTC, Bitmine surpassed BlackRock in ETH holdings, and El Salvador added 1,098 BTC. Macro headwinds include a US national security probe into Bitmain and UK authorities’ sanctions-evasion crackdown seizing $32.6 million in crypto. Market analysts remain divided: some foresee Bitcoin soaring to $150,000–$200,000 by January, while others caution a muted rebound for 3–6 months. These developments suggest a bullish bias amid expected Fed easing, strong crypto ETF inflows, and growing institutional accumulation.

Bullish

The combined rise in Fed rate cut odds, strong crypto ETF inflows, and institutional accumulation creates a bullish outlook. Historically, Fed easing expectations have driven risk-on rallies in digital assets. Yesterday’s $238 million net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs and $55.7 million into Ethereum ETFs mirrors past patterns where ETF demand underpinned price gains. Institutional investors—from Cardone Capital to El Salvador—are increasing BTC exposure, reinforcing confidence. Corporate moves like Bitmine’s staking launch and Coinbase’s Solana DEX acquisition indicate expanding infrastructure and utility, further supporting market momentum. Regulatory headwinds, such as the US probe into Bitmain or UK sanctions actions, introduce caution but haven’t derailed previous upswings. In the short term, traders may react positively to FedWatch data and ETF flows, driving a relief rally. Longer-term, improved staking services and decentralized trading options could sustain demand. Overall, these factors point to a bullish bias in both near-term trading and medium-term market stability.