US Fed minutes confirm discount rate held at 3.75%, signaling caution on cuts
The US Fed released minutes from its February 9 and March 18, 2026 discount-rate meetings. All 12 Reserve Banks voted to hold the primary credit rate at 3.75%, and both sessions ended with no sentiment for changing the rate.
At the March 18 meeting with the FOMC, officials also kept the federal funds target range at 3.5%–3.75% and maintained interest on reserve balances at 3.65%. Reserve Bank directors reported mostly stable economic conditions, with labor markets showing limited hiring, low turnover, and modest wage growth. Some districts flagged difficulty hiring for specialized roles, especially in healthcare.
On inflation pressure, the Fed noted tariff-related price pressures have eased versus earlier assessments, but nonlabor costs remain elevated, particularly in healthcare and energy. The Board renewed formulas for secondary and seasonal credit programs, leaving the secondary rate at 4.25% (50 basis points above the primary credit rate).
Traders should take this as a near-term “caution” message: the US Fed appears reluctant to ease further despite market expectations for cuts later in the year. Next, inflation data will be the key catalyst for any shift in stance.
Neutral
This news is largely rate-holding, not a pivot. The US Fed minutes confirm the discount rate stayed at 3.75% and there was no expressed sentiment to change it, which tends to reduce the probability of an imminent dovish surprise. That typically supports the “range-bound” behaviour seen when central banks signal caution ahead of the next inflation print.
In crypto, the immediate implication is more likely neutral-to-stable: BTC and other risk assets often react strongly to directional changes (cuts/hikes), while minutes that reiterate “wait-and-see” usually lower volatility rather than trigger a sustained trend. Similar patterns have played out in prior cycles when the Fed kept policy steady and markets shifted focus to the next CPI/PCE release.
Short term: expect traders to shift attention to upcoming inflation data for any change in US Fed guidance, keeping positioning more tactical than trend-chasing.
Long term: if inflation continues to cool, the “held for now” posture can still support a later easing narrative; if nonlabor costs keep rising, the same cautious stance can restrain upside risk premium—so the net effect remains neutral without new forward guidance.