Fed Liquidity Shift and Weak ADP Fuel Bitcoin’s Rally Toward $100K
Bitcoin jumped ~8.5% in two days to trade around $93k after the Federal Reserve halted quantitative tightening and began expanding liquidity on Dec 1, and after an unexpected ADP private payroll drop of 32,000 for November 2025. Markets now price an ~89% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at the Dec 18 FOMC meeting. BTC has recovered from lows near $80.5k to roughly $93k (≈15.6% over two weeks) and sits about 2% below the upper trendline of a falling channel; a breakout above that channel would reinforce a move toward $100,000. Daily RSI has risen to ~48, indicating neutral-to-improving momentum. However, fresh investment inflows have fallen more than 50% in seven days (from $15B to $6.85B), suggesting the rally is driven largely by macro news rather than durable on-chain demand, which makes the move susceptible to reversal if buying stalls. Key trading considerations: watch for a decisive breakout above the channel resistance and confirmation of sustained flows (on-chain and investment inflows); monitor Fed communications and employment data that could alter rate-cut expectations and liquidity dynamics.
Bullish
The news combines two pro-risk macro developments: the Fed halting quantitative tightening (expanding liquidity) and weaker-than-expected ADP payrolls that have pushed markets to price a high probability of a 25bp rate cut. Together these factors lower real yields and reduce financial conditions, which historically supports risk assets including Bitcoin. Technicals align: BTC has recovered strongly from ~$80.5k to ~93k, RSI moved from bearish into neutral (~48), and price sits just ~2% below the falling-channel resistance — a breakout could validate renewed momentum toward $100k. Counterpoints: a >50% drop in seven-day investment inflows signals the rally is more macro-news-driven than capital-driven, making it vulnerable to reversals if liquidity expectations change or sellers defend the channel. Short-term impact: likely bullish with potential for volatility at the channel resistance; traders should look for breakout confirmation and improved inflows. Long-term impact: if the Fed actually cuts rates and liquidity remains supportive, this could underpin a sustained bull trend; if expectations reverse, the move may fail and retest lower supports.