Fed pauses rate cuts; gold surges as Bitcoin and risk assets remain muted
The Federal Reserve paused its easing cycle at the first 2026 FOMC meeting, keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%. Two officials dissented, preferring another 25bp cut, underlining policy division. Market focus quickly shifted from timing of cuts to the next Fed chair: Polymarket odds favor Rick Rieder (~34%), Kevin Warsh (~28%) and Christopher Waller (~20%), and chair choice is seen as a key determinant of future rate paths. Gold surged, breaking $5,500/oz and rising over $500 in four trading days (~10% weekly gain) as investors sought safe havens amid macro uncertainty. Equities, the US dollar and Treasuries traded with limited movement. Crypto reacted muted: Bitcoin hovered around $89k (small intraday swings), Ethereum near $3,000, and major altcoins stayed rangebound as traders entered a “waiting mode.” On-chain data (CryptoQuant) shows Bitcoin’s 365-day supply-in-loss rising, indicating losses spreading beyond short-term holders — a structural risk signal but not clear capitulation. Institutions disagree on cut timing (some penciling June/September, others later or none). For traders: expect heightened gold volatility, limited directional conviction in risk assets, and that BTC’s near-term direction will hinge on macro liquidity, Fed leadership clarity, and on-chain flow indicators. Primary keywords: Federal Reserve, gold surge, Bitcoin, interest rate pause. Secondary keywords: Fed chair odds, safe-haven flows, crypto on-chain risk, supply-in-loss, macro uncertainty.
Neutral
The news is neutral for Bitcoin price in the near term. The Fed pause removes immediate downward pressure from an aggressive tightening stance, which can be supportive for risk assets including BTC, but the lack of clear forward guidance and internal Fed dissent shifts market uncertainty toward Fed leadership and timing of future cuts. That uncertainty — together with muted risk-asset moves and a massive gold reallocation — suggests capital is shifting into safe havens rather than cyclically into crypto. On-chain metrics (rising 365-day supply-in-loss) show losses are broadening beyond short-term traders, signaling structural risk but not outright capitulation. Therefore expect limited directional conviction: short-term volatility may increase on macro or leadership headlines, while any sustained BTC rally requires clearer easing/lower rates or renewed capital flows back into risk assets. Key trader actions: watch Fed chair developments, liquidity indicators, gold flows, and on-chain signals (exchange flows, long-term holder supply-in-loss) to time entries; manage risk with tighter stops and reduced position size until macro clarity emerges.