Fed’s September Rate Cut Odds Surge Above 92%: Impact on Bitcoin
Market participants now assign a 92.2% probability to a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Current rates sit at 4.25%–4.50%, and a cut toward 4% would mark the first reduction since July. Historically, Fed rate cuts inject liquidity into risk assets, often triggering sharp rallies. Bitcoin and the broader crypto market typically benefit as cheaper borrowing costs and renewed investor appetite drive price gains. The most notable precedent occurred during the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020, when the Fed slashed rates from 1.58% to 0.05%, sparking an explosive bull run in Bitcoin and altcoins. Even a modest cut this September could fuel heightened volatility and potentially propel Bitcoin toward fresh highs.
Bullish
A high probability of Fed rate cuts typically boosts risk assets by lowering borrowing costs and increasing market liquidity. Bitcoin has historically rallied following Fed easing—most notably after the 2020 rate slash that drove an unprecedented crypto bull run. Even a modest cut in September can trigger renewed investor demand, higher volatility, and price spikes. In both the short and long term, cheaper credit and supportive monetary policy underpin bullish momentum for Bitcoin.