Fed minutes show policymakers split on cuts; Bitcoin steadies near $88k
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 9–10 meeting revealed sharp divisions among officials over the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts. The Fed reduced the benchmark rate to 3.50–3.75% in December (third consecutive 25bp cut) with three dissents: one for a larger cut and two for no change. Officials split between prioritising labour-market protection and guarding the 2% inflation mandate. Incomplete data after a government shutdown complicated deliberations, though later labour and inflation reports provided additional context. Market pricing shows just a 15% chance of a January cut. Bitcoin, which had established bearish chart patterns ahead of the minutes, traded around $88,175 on the release and moved only modestly. Key macro figures cited: US Q3 GDP +4.3% and November unemployment at 4.6%. Traders should note elevated policy uncertainty and mixed rate-path projections for 2025 — factors likely to keep risk assets, including BTC, sensitive to incoming economic data and Fed commentary.
Neutral
The minutes signal policy uncertainty rather than a clear shift in direction. While the Fed cut rates in December, internal division and low odds of an imminent January cut (15%) reduce the chance of a decisive risk-on impulse for crypto. Bitcoin’s modest reaction—trading near $88k despite bearish chart patterns—suggests the market is pricing in continued sensitivity to incoming data and Fed guidance. Short-term: heightened volatility around employment and inflation releases as traders reassess rate-cut timing. Bearish technical patterns on BTC increase the risk of downside if macro data weakens risk appetite. Long-term: if inflation continues to fall and the Fed moves toward multiple cuts in 2025, that would be bullish for risk assets; but the current split among policymakers implies a staggered or delayed easing path, supporting a neutral-to-cautious stance. Historical parallels: episodes (e.g., 2019 and 2023) where Fed messaging was mixed produced choppy crypto trading and range-bound BTC price action until a clearer policy trajectory emerged.