Fidelity: Bitcoin may enter a 2026 ‘bear year’ — key support $65k–$75k
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro Research at Fidelity, said Bitcoin likely peaked near $125,000 in October 2025 following the 2024 halving and may enter a roughly one‑year correction or “bear year” in 2026. Using historical cycle alignment, Timmer notes the peak timing fits prior patterns and highlights falling trading volume and reduced on‑chain activity since the high. He identifies a critical technical support zone at $65,000–$75,000; a drop below $65,000 would erase most 2025 gains. Fidelity expects 2026 could be a “resting” year with extended sideways or modestly down price action rather than a sudden crash. Timmer remains long‑term constructive on Bitcoin but flags elevated downside risk over the next year. By contrast, he underscores gold’s strong 2025 performance (about +65% YTD) and argues it has shown better downside resilience amid macro uncertainty. Implications for traders: expect higher short‑term volatility and possible drawdowns for retail buyers who entered near the October peak; institutions may view weakness as an accumulation opportunity to lower average cost. This is market analysis, not investment advice.
Bearish
Timmer’s view signals a heightened near‑term downside risk for Bitcoin. The core factors weighing on price are: a likely cycle peak in October 2025 near $125k, falling trading volume and on‑chain activity, and a technical support band at $65k–$75k that, if violated (below $65k), would erase most 2025 gains. Fidelity frames 2026 as a potential ‘resting’ year — extended sideways or modest declines rather than a steep crash — which implies limited upside and elevated volatility for the next 6–12 months. For traders, this suggests: short term — increased volatility, greater probability of drawdowns (risk for buyers who entered near the peak), and opportunities for shorting or hedging; medium term — watch the $65k–$75k range for accumulation or stop‑loss triggers; long term — fundamentals and institutional accumulation could support price recovery, so weakness may be viewed by institutions as a cost‑basis lowering chance. Overall, the announcement tilts market impact toward bearish in the near to medium term but remains neutral‑to‑positive for long‑term holders.