Fidelity: Bitcoin fit enter 'bear year' for 2026 — key support $65k–$75k
Jurrien Timmer, Director for Global Macro Research for Fidelity, talk say Bitcoin likely reach im peak near $125,000 for October 2025 after the 2024 halving and fit enter about one‑year correction or “bear year” for 2026. Using historical cycle alignment, Timmer note say the timing of the peak match previous patterns and point out falling trading volume and less on‑chain activity since the high. Him identify critical technical support zone for $65,000–$75,000; if price drop below $65,000 e go wipe out most 2025 gains. Fidelity expect say 2026 fit be “resting” year with extended sideways or small decline price action rather than sudden crash. Timmer still long‑term constructive on Bitcoin but warn say downside risk don rise for the next year. For contrast, him stress gold strong 2025 performance (about +65% YTD) and argue say e show better downside resilience amid macro uncertainty. Implications for traders: expect higher short‑term volatility and possible drawdowns for retail buyers wey enter near the October peak; institutions fit see weakness as accumulation opportunity to lower average cost. This na market analysis, no be investment advice.
Bearish
Timmer tok say Bitcoin get higher near‑term downside risk. Di main factors wey dey weigh price na: likely cycle peak for October 2025 near $125k, falling trading volume and on‑chain activity, and technical support band for $65k–$75k wey if dem breach (below $65k) go wipe out most 2025 gains. Fidelity dey frame 2026 as possible ‘resting’ year — extended sideways or small declines rather than big crash — which mean limited upside and higher volatility for next 6–12 months. For traders, this mean: short term — more volatility, bigger chance of drawdowns (risk for buyers wey enter near peak), and chances to short or hedge; medium term — watch $65k–$75k range for accumulation or stop‑loss triggers; long term — fundamentals and institutional accumulation fit support price recovery, so weakness fit be chance for institutions to lower cost‑basis. Overall, the announcement tilt market impact toward bearish near to medium term but remain neutral‑to‑positive for long‑term holders.