Fidelity Analyst: Bitcoin May Be Entering New Cycle, Year-End Outcome Still Uncertain
Fidelity Global Macro head Jurrien Timmer said on X that after excessive speculation retreated, market sentiment around cryptocurrencies has improved. With a potentially dovish Fed and calmer bond and FX markets, Bitcoin (BTC) could end 2025 on a relatively strong footing. Timmer noted that prior strategies like companies issuing shares to buy Bitcoin (to generate yield) may now act as a headwind and raise questions about whether the four‑year cycle has ended. He also pointed to Bitcoin’s mature network-cycle structure: since 2010 Bitcoin has seen five up‑waves, each smaller in percentage gains but longer in duration. Using this five‑wave framework, Timmer’s chart projects a potential peak for the fifth wave near $151,360. The commentary is presented as market information and not investment advice.
Neutral
The report is neutral because it frames potential upside (improved sentiment, dovish Fed, mature cycle suggesting a high theoretical target) alongside clear uncertainties (year‑end outcome unclear; structural headwinds from corporate BTC-buying via share issuance). For traders: short-term impact is likely muted—sentiment may improve modestly when macro risks ease, but no immediate catalyst is announced. Historically, macro pivot expectations (e.g., Fed easing) have been bullish for BTC, while structural supply/demand changes or new sell-pressure sources have tempered rallies. The quoted $151,360 peak is a long-term scenario based on a five‑wave model, not an actionable short-term target. Therefore expect: limited near‑term volatility tied to macro data and corporate behaviors, potential medium-to-long-term bullish bias if monetary conditions remain loose and on-chain maturity continues, but downside exists if corporate selling or a Fed pivot back to tightening occurs.