Fidelity: Bitcoin four‑year cycle intact; weaker markets expected into 2026
Fidelity Global Macro research director Jurrien Timmer says Bitcoin’s historical four‑year halving cycle remains intact after the post‑halving rally that peaked in October near $125,000. Timmer’s cycle analysis—based on patterns from 2012, 2016 and 2020—shows roughly 145 weeks of gains before a top, and he expects a multimonth bear‑like phase to continue into 2026. Fidelity identifies likely support in the $65,000–$75,000 band. The view contrasts with more bullish commentary from some analysts who argue institutional adoption and spot‑ETF flows could alter historical cycles. For traders: BTC may face continued downside pressure or consolidation in early‑to‑mid 2026, with potential buying opportunities around the $65k–$75k support zone; volatility could stay elevated as markets reassess ETF flows and macro conditions. This is market analysis, not investment advice.
Bearish
Timmer’s analysis indicates the traditional post‑halving cycle dynamics remain in play, with a historical pattern of extended gains followed by a multimonth drawdown. The projected $65k–$75k support band implies meaningful downside from the October peak near $125k and signals likely consolidation or further losses into early‑to‑mid 2026. For traders, that suggests increased risk of short‑term selling pressure and sustained volatility as markets weigh ETF flows and macro factors. While institutional adoption and spot ETF developments remain bullish tailwinds over the long term, the immediate price impact described—expectation of a prolonged bear‑like phase and a clear support range—leans bearish for BTC price action in the near to medium term. Trading implications: manage risk, consider scaling into the $65k–$75k band if accumulation is part of your plan, and expect volatile re‑tests of support.