Fidelity’s Macro Chief Warns Bitcoin, Predicts 2026 Pause as Gold Outperforms
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s macro strategist, warned that both gold and Bitcoin may “take a year off” in 2026 despite his long-term bullish view. Timmer — who previously expected gold to hand momentum to Bitcoin in H2 2025 — noted that gold instead outperformed through 2025, rallying roughly 70% and reaching record highs (reported near $4,550). Drivers cited include geopolitical tensions, expectations of a Federal Reserve dovish pivot, and central banks shifting reserves away from US Treasuries. By contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) underperformed in late 2025, set to record its second-worst Q4, down about 7% for the year. Timmer’s caution signals a potential near-term pause for risk assets and hard assets before they resume longer-term cycles. Key takeaways for traders: strong gold performance has recently outshone Bitcoin; macro forces (Fed stance, reserve reallocations, geopolitics) are primary drivers; expect elevated volatility and possible consolidation for BTC in 2026 as capital flows respond to central-bank moves and safe-haven demand.
Bearish
Timmer’s public caution — a respected macro strategist at Fidelity — increases the likelihood of reduced capital flow into risk-on crypto trades in the near term. His note that gold has outperformed and that both gold and Bitcoin may “take a year off” signals an expectation of consolidation or sideways trading rather than immediate upside. Historically, macro calls from prominent institutional strategists can influence sentiment: when safe-haven assets like gold rally on Fed dovish expectations and geopolitical risk, speculative assets (including BTC) often experience short-term underperformance and higher volatility (eg. BTC corrections during risk-off macro episodes in 2018 and March 2020). For traders this implies: short-term: heightened volatility, potential consolidation or further downside pressure on BTC, and relative outperformance of gold and other safe havens; tactical actions might include tighter risk management, reduced leverage, or hedges (shorts or options). Long-term: Timmer still identifies a multi-year bullish cycle for gold and Bitcoin; a one-year pause would be consolidation that can precede renewed trend continuation if macro conditions stabilize. Overall, the immediate market impact is likely bearish for crypto sentiment and trading flows, while the long-term structural case remains intact if macro drivers reverse.