Bitcoin Trades at 40% Discount to Energy Value Model Amid Strong ETF Inflows and Massive Exchange Outflows
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at a 40% discount to its estimated intrinsic value, according to Capriole Investments’ Charles Edwards. The Bitcoin Energy Value Model values BTC around $130,000, while the market price remains significantly lower even after one year since the last halving. This highlights a potential undervaluation based on mining costs and energy consumption. Notably, spot Bitcoin ETFs are attracting robust institutional demand, recording $3 billion in weekly inflows, which indicates strong confidence from large investors. Additionally, major exchanges—such as Coinbase and Binance—have registered significant Bitcoin outflows, often associated with institutional accumulation or ETF-related buying. Analysts note that if historical market trends repeat, Bitcoin could rally by another 7-10% soon, possibly breaking above the $100,000 resistance, though major outflows do not always guarantee immediate price rallies. Overall, persistent ETF inflows, exchange outflows, and value-based assessments suggest positive sentiment and the potential for continued bullish momentum in the crypto market.
Bullish
The news that Bitcoin is trading at a 40% discount to its intrinsic energy value suggests potential undervaluation, which could attract value-based investors. Strong weekly inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and large outflows from major exchanges reinforce the narrative that institutional accumulation is underway, a trend historically linked with upward price momentum. Analysts project possible short-term gains of 7-10%, and the possibility of price surges towards $100,000 if bullish market fractals continue to play out. However, some caution remains due to strong resistance levels and the fact that major outflows have not invariably produced immediate rallies. Overall, the convergence of undervaluation signals and robust institutional demand supports a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in both the short and longer term.