FOMC minutes and CPI week: rates, oil-shock inflation, and crypto catalysts

This week centers on “FOMC minutes and CPI”, with Fed minutes (covering the March 17–18 meeting) and US CPI landing within 48 hours. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% after the March meeting, when oil prices rose sharply amid the Middle East conflict. Traders will parse the FOMC minutes for signs of internal disagreement on how fast (or whether) easing could come—especially as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May and Kevin Warsh’s confirmation remains pending. Then, “FOMC minutes and CPI” converge again via the March CPI release (April 10, 8:30 a.m. ET). CPI will be the first inflation print fully reflecting the post-oil-spike period. February CPI was 2.4% YoY, with energy driving part of the monthly move. Markets are focused on whether March shows a one-off energy effect the Fed can “look through,” or whether services and shelter inflation are turning stickier. The Fed’s projections still implied a median of one cut in 2026, but committee members are now split, with seven projecting zero cuts. A hot CPI could reduce the odds of April 28–29 easing. Crypto traders also face overlapping catalysts: major US bank earnings (Goldman Sachs April 13; JPMorgan April 14, alongside PPI) that can influence risk appetite; CME BTC/ETH monthly options expiry on April 24 (four days before the FOMC decision), potentially concentrating hedging/positioning flows; and the US “CLARITY Act” Senate Banking markup targeted for late April, which could reshape SEC/CFTC jurisdiction and stablecoin yield rules. Overall, this is a macro-heavy setup where FOMC minutes and CPI can quickly reprice rate expectations, while derivatives and legislation add additional near-term volatility.