Forex Strategies Outpace Crypto: A 2026 Trading Playbook
Adrian Barkley outlines why forex trading can outperform crypto trading in 2026. He highlights tight spreads, deep liquidity, and low slippage as compounding advantages for forex. Crypto retains value for right-tail convexity, catalyst-driven moves, and 24/7 access. He proposes a 2026 forex playbook:
1) Carry trades with volatility guardrails.
2) Event-driven execution on CPI and central bank days.
3) Pair selection based on relative divergence across G10 and emerging markets.
4) Use XAUUSD trends as a regime compass.
For crypto, he recommends vol-targeted sizing, staggered entries/exits, and defined-risk options. He stresses cost controls: track after-cost performance and sunset strategies that cost more than they earn. His portfolio framework balances steady FX carry and relative-value core with a lean tactical crypto sleeve. Execution guidelines include setting slippage limits, pre-funding collateral, and auditing after-cost PnL. Key risks are policy shocks, liquidity gaps, and rule changes. This disciplined approach aims to turn small forex edges into repeatable returns while using crypto tactically.
Bearish
By emphasizing forex edges over crypto, this article may shift trader capital toward FX and away from digital assets. Historically, when tight spreads and systematic macro strategies draw funds back into forex or bonds, crypto prices often stall or decline. In the short term, crypto trading volumes could dip as participants follow low-cost forex tactics. Over the long run, a lean crypto sleeve remains, but overall inflows to the crypto market may moderate. This competitive pressure from FX suggests a cautious outlook for crypto prices.