Friday Market Watch: PCE Data, Canada GDP & Fed Speeches
Friday’s economic calendar features key PCE data releases and Fed speeches that could sway risk appetite. At 14:30 ET, the U.S. consumer spending report and core and headline PCE data are due. Forecasts show consumer spending up 0.5% month-on-month, core PCE at 0.2% m/m and headline PCE at 0.3% m/m. Canada’s July GDP at 14:30 ET is forecast to rise 0.1%.
Fed speakers, including Tom Barkin at 15:00 ET and Michelle Bowman at 19:00 ET, will deliver remarks. At 16:00 ET, the University of Michigan sentiment report and short- and long-term inflation expectations will arrive. The U.S. oil rig count at 19:00 ET will also shape market indicators. This macro data and Fed commentary form critical inputs for trading outlooks and risk assessment ahead of the next interest-rate decision.
Neutral
The scheduled PCE data and Fed speeches primarily provide guidance on inflation trends and monetary policy. Forecasts suggest moderate consumer spending growth and stable core inflation. Such expected outcomes may limit volatility in crypto markets, as traders await clearer signals on rate paths. Historically, when PCE data aligns with forecasts, markets tend to maintain sideways trends. Combined with Canada GDP and Michigan sentiment reports, the data set is comprehensive but not bearish or bullish by itself. As a result, crypto traders are likely to remain on the sidelines until the Fed’s rate decisions. In the short term, we expect muted moves. Over the long term, these macro indicators will still guide risk appetite once Fed commentary diverges from market expectations. If PCE data surprises, volatility may increase.