Fundstrat Internal Memo Sees BTC $60K–$65K, ETH $1.8K–$2K in Early 2026; Lee Remains Bullish
Fundstrat Global Advisors circulated an internal 2026 outlook warning of a “meaningful drawdown” in H1 2026, with downside targets of Bitcoin (BTC) $60,000–$65,000, Ether (ETH) $1,800–$2,000 and Solana (SOL) $50–$75. Attributed to Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy, the memo bases the scenario on technical analysis and historical cycle patterns and frames those levels as potential accumulation zones later in the year. The guidance, shared via screenshots on social media and not publicly released or independently verified, highlights regulatory and macroeconomic risks as drivers of near-term volatility. The internal bearish view contrasts with public bullish commentary from Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, who recently described ETH as undervalued and has a related vehicle, BitMine, disclosing substantial ETH holdings. For traders, the note identifies concrete short-term support targets that could act as buy-the-dip zones if market conditions stabilize, while Lee’s continued accumulation and bullish narrative may sustain longer-term conviction. Key trading implications: defined downside targets can set psychological support/resistance, may trigger risk-off positioning and short trades in the near term, and could create high-conviction entry points for swing and institutional buyers if liquidity and macro conditions improve later in 2026.
Bearish
The internal Fundstrat memo explicitly sets lower price targets for BTC, ETH and SOL in early 2026 and highlights regulatory and macro risk as drivers of near-term volatility. That direct projection of defined downside targets is likely to encourage risk-off positioning, increased short interest and reduced speculative long exposure in the short term. For traders, the immediate effect is bearish: clearly stated support ranges ($60k–$65k for BTC, $1.8k–$2k for ETH, $50–$75 for SOL) create reference levels for stop placement, short entries and tactical hedges. However, the note also frames those levels as potential accumulation zones later in the year, and Tom Lee’s concurrent bullish commentary plus disclosed institutional ETH accumulation (BitMine) provide countervailing long-term demand signals. Thus, while the short-term price impact is expected to be bearish—prompting defensive positioning and potential sell pressure—the longer-term outlook may remain constructive if those levels attract buyers and macro/regulatory headwinds ease.