Galaxy Sees Bitcoin Bottoming, With Accumulation Under Way

| panewslab.com
Galaxy Research says Bitcoin’s bear market may have bottomed in June 2026 and that Bitcoin is now in an accumulation phase. The firm cites a rebound above the 50-week moving average after 44 weeks below it, support at the 200-week average during June’s low, and timing that resembles previous post-halving market bottoms. Galaxy says speculative exposure has fallen: asset managers’ net long CME Bitcoin futures positions dropped 57% from their peak. ETF data cited in the reports shows holdings among reporting institutions fell 14%, while total US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings declined 11% from the market peak to the low. Since June’s low, spot ETFs have added 87,000 BTC, which Galaxy says suggests longer-term investors and wealth managers are absorbing supply. Selling by holders of long-dormant Bitcoin has also eased. The report argues that US debt, fiscal deficits and currency-debasement risks could support Bitcoin’s appeal as a hard asset. However, Bitcoin remained 35% below its previous high on 22 October while major US stock indexes were near records. Galaxy’s bullish outlook would be challenged if Bitcoin closes below the 50-week average—then cited at $76,540—and fails to reclaim it within a month, if spot ETF holdings fall below 1.22 million BTC, or if other specified risks emerge. The firm’s analysis is an investment view, not a guarantee of returns.
Bullish
Galaxy’s assessment is potentially supportive of Bitcoin over the long term: key moving averages held, Bitcoin regained its 50-week average, speculative positions declined, and spot ETF inflows since June suggest that longer-term buyers may be absorbing supply. The easing of sales by long-dormant holders and the report’s view that debt and currency-debasement risks support hard assets add to the bullish case. In the short term, the report may strengthen trader confidence in a market bottom, but it does not establish that a sustained recovery is assured. Bitcoin was still well below its previous high, and traders may respond to ETF flows and the 50-week average as signals of demand and trend strength. A sustained close below that average, weakening ETF holdings, or the other risks identified by Galaxy could undermine the thesis and increase selling pressure. Historical cycle comparisons and the report’s indicators are not guarantees, so volatility and swift changes in positioning remain possible.