Galaxy Research dey warn say Bitcoin price fit reach $40K by late 2026
Galaxy Research dey warn say Bitcoin price fit never finish im cycle bottom yet. Based on market and on-chain metrics, di firm base-case floor for Bitcoin price na $40,000–$46,000 by late 2026. Polymarket dey give 32% chance say BTC go fall to $40,000, compared to 30% chance to reach $90,000. Di firm talk say only 4 out of 13 historical bottom indicators don trigger now, so confirmation never complete.
On-chain context dey support "still oversold" setup rather than clear trend reversal. BTC don drop about 51% from im October 2025 peak and e still about 14% above im cost basis, with MVRV near 1.14. Galaxy yarn say risk of deeper capitulation lower than past cycles, but dem also note say aSOPR dey near 0.96 support area; for stronger bottom, aSOPR must reclaim and hold above 1.0 and short-term holder MVRV must move back through 1.0.
Galaxy highlight one key risk: cost basis fit fall during sell-offs. If panic cause ~10%–30% drop in realized cost basis, potential floor fit shift lower to around $36,000, $32,000, or $28,000. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows and corporate treasury demand fit support the floor, but dem fit no cushion sharp stress if outflows or "buy strength" behaviour show up.
Overall, dis paint Bitcoin price outlook as fragile into late 2026 unless more on-chain confirmation appear.
Bearish
Galaxy report dey structurally bearish because e dey frame the current drawdown as early/partial “bottoming zone” instead of confirmed cycle bottom. Na only 4 out of 13 historical indicators don trigger, while some stronger capitulation/washout signals never show (for example, price never break realized cost basis and broader holder loss-taking never reach the previous extremes). The probabilistic angle still matter: Polymarket downside dey more credible than full upside recovery (32% to $40k vs 30% to $90k), and $45k risk higher still (40%).
For past BTC cycles, bottoms normally form nearer to 12–13 months after the peak; the current drawdown dey younger (~8 months), so time-based confirmation never mature. If on-chain conditions worsen—especially if the realized cost basis fall during panic selling—the downside “floor” fit step down significantly (toward the high-$20k/low-$30k area), same like historical times when capitulation cause realized cost to reprice lower.
Short-term for traders: expect continued volatility and possible sell-pressure until aSOPR sustain above 1.0 and short-term holder MVRV clear 1.0. Long-term: ETF and treasury demand fit soften extremes, but the report suggest dem fit not fully counter stress during drawdowns, keeping risk skew to the downside into late 2026.