Galaxy Researcher Says Bitcoin Bear-Market Bottom Is In
Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, says Bitcoin’s bear-market bottom may be in, citing weaker selling pressure, reduced speculation and a stronger case for fiat currency depreciation. He argues these conditions could make this a strategic time to add to Bitcoin holdings, though the view is his assessment rather than confirmation of a market bottom.
Thorn says monthly outflows from Bitcoin dormant for more than five years fell from an average of 67,000 BTC in 2024 to 47,000 in 2025 and 34,000 in 2026. CFTC data also show asset managers’ net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures declining 57% from a peak of 43,300 BTC to 18,400 BTC. Leveraged funds’ net short positions fell from 71,400 BTC to 30,600 BTC, which Thorn sees as evidence that speculative and basis-trading capital has largely withdrawn.
He also points to US federal debt above $40.44 trillion, annual interest costs of $1.28 trillion and persistent budget deficits as factors supporting the Bitcoin-as-a-hedge argument. Thorn says renewed market preference for enterprise blockchain over Bitcoin has appeared in earlier cycles, including 2016 and 2018–19, before subsequent Bitcoin rallies. Traders should note that these indicators do not guarantee a reversal; price action, liquidity and positioning remain important.
Bullish
The article is bullish because Thorn identifies several conditions that could support Bitcoin: reduced outflows from long-dormant coins, a substantial decline in speculative futures positioning, and macroeconomic concerns around US debt and deficits. Lower selling from long-term holders and the unwinding of leveraged or basis-trading positions may reduce immediate supply pressure. If demand returns, this positioning reset could amplify a recovery.
The historical comparison with 2016 and 2018–19 offers a supportive narrative: periods when attention shifted from Bitcoin to enterprise blockchain were followed by major rallies. However, this is a thesis from a Galaxy researcher, not confirmation that a bottom has formed. In the short term, traders may respond positively to the reduced-supply and contrarian signals, but price direction will still depend on liquidity, broader risk appetite, and whether spot demand strengthens. Futures positioning can also rebuild quickly, while macroeconomic concerns may affect risk assets in either direction. Over the longer term, persistent debt growth may reinforce Bitcoin’s appeal as a scarce asset, but the claim that Bitcoin has bottomed should be tested against market prices and on-chain data rather than treated as a certainty.