Galaxy Says Bitcoin Bear Market Ended as Accumulation Begins

| cryptobriefing.com
Galaxy Research says Bitcoin’s bear market likely ended in June 2026, when BTC held near $76,540, and the market has since entered an accumulation phase. The firm said Bitcoin recovered above its 50-week moving average after spending 44 weeks below it, then recorded five consecutive weekly closes above the line by October 18. The 200-week average also held as support. Bitcoin was near $80,000 when the report was published, about 35% below its roughly $126,000 October 2025 peak and 39% above the June low. Galaxy cited reduced selling pressure as a potential support for Bitcoin accumulation: monthly transfers of coins dormant for at least five years averaged 34,000 BTC in 2026, down from 67,000 BTC in 2024. Spot Bitcoin ETFs had added 87,000 BTC since the June low, although institutional positioning was mixed. Nine major hedge funds reportedly cut futures and ETF exposure by more than half from the peak, while asset managers’ net-long CME Bitcoin futures positions fell 57%; some institutional investors reduced ETF holdings as others added to them. Galaxy also pointed to rising US debt, a $1.99 trillion fiscal 2026 deficit and elevated Treasury yields as factors that could support Bitcoin demand. The firm said its bullish market-cycle view would be challenged if Bitcoin closes below its 50-week moving average—about $76,540—and fails to reclaim it within a month. The accumulation case may support long-term buyer interest, but weaker institutional positioning and a loss of key technical support remain risks; Galaxy’s outlook is not a guarantee of recovery.
Bullish
Galaxy’s view that Bitcoin has moved from a bear market into accumulation is mildly bullish for BTC, particularly over the longer term. The recovery above the 50-week moving average, support at the 200-week average, lower transfers from long-dormant coins and ETF inflows since June suggest that selling pressure may have eased. These signals could encourage dip-buying and strengthen confidence among traders seeking a longer-term entry. The near-term picture is less certain. Bitcoin remained about 35% below its October 2025 peak, while hedge funds and asset managers had reduced futures and ETF exposure. That pullback may limit institutional demand and leave the market vulnerable to volatility. A weekly close below the 50-week moving average, followed by failure to reclaim it within a month, would weaken Galaxy’s thesis and could prompt further selling. Overall, the accumulation signals tilt the assessment bullish, but the view depends on BTC holding key technical support and does not establish that a sustained recovery is assured.