Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn: BTC May Drop to $70K, Realized Price Risk Near $56K
Galaxy Digital research director Alex Thorn warns Bitcoin (BTC) may extend its recent downtrend and is likely to test the lower edge of a supply gap near $70,000 in the coming weeks, with a possible longer-term probe toward a realized price around $56,000. Thorn cites a lack of clear catalysts — diminished odds of U.S. crypto market-structure legislation and little large-buyer accumulation — as reasons downside pressure could persist. Technical indicators cited include BTC trading near $78.5–78.8K (about 39% below its all-time high), RSI near oversold (~29), Supertrend bearish, EMA20 around $85.7K, and the 200-week moving average near $58K as a historical cycle-bottom reference. Immediate supports noted: $78.47 and $76.31 (breaks could open tests of $76K then $70K). Market context: BTC recently slipped below MicroStrategy’s approximate cost basis (~$76K) and fell under $80K for the first time since April 2025; futures and spot data point to bearish pressure, while long-term holder selling has slowed — a possible sign the market is approaching a bottom region absent fresh inflows. Trading implications for short-term traders: elevated probability of further downside with key support levels to watch ($78.5K, $76K, $70K) and an eye on realized price/200-week MA for potential longer-term support. For swing/position traders: limited evidence yet of strong institutional accumulation; a meaningful upward reversal likely requires clear external catalysts or renewed institutional flows. This is not investment advice.
Bearish
The combined reporting signals a higher probability of near-term downside for BTC. Both summaries highlight absent catalysts (reduced chance of U.S. market-structure bill passage, little large-buyer accumulation) and technicals that favor sellers: price sitting below key EMAs, Supertrend bearish, RSI near oversold but not yet indicating sustained capitulation. Specific support levels to watch (78.5K, 76K, 70K) and the historical cycle-bottom indicators (realized price ≈ $56K and 200-week MA ≈ $58K) frame how far declines could extend if selling continues. Futures and spot data pointing to bearish pressure, plus BTC trading under MicroStrategy’s cost basis, increase the likelihood of forced or strategic selling. Reduced long-term holder selling moderates the downside risk and may mark a bottom region, but absent fresh institutional flows or regulatory clarity, the immediate bias stays negative. Therefore, expect elevated short-term downside risk, limited upside until clear catalysts reappear, and potential longer-term support around the realized price/200-week MA.