Galaxy’s Alex Thorn Warns Bitcoin Could Slide Toward $70K–$56K as Momentum Fades
Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn warns that Bitcoin (BTC) faces renewed downside risk as bullish momentum weakens and key technical supports have been lost. Thorn highlights the likely test of the lower edge of a recent supply gap near $70,000 and a possible longer-term realized-price-area around $56,000. He notes BTC has lost the 50-week moving average (previously broken in November) while the 200-week moving average sits near $58,000 — a historical cycle support level. Technical indicators signal short-term weakness (RSI near oversold, Supertrend bearish; EMA20 and other resistances above current price). BTC recently traded below MicroStrategy’s cost basis (~$76K) and beneath $80K for the first time since April 2025, with futures and spot data pointing to bearish pressure. Institutional data are mixed: Coinbase’s Q1 2026 report shows ~70% of institutions view BTC as undervalued at $85K–$95K, but limited accumulation by large investors and plans by some sellers to wait for higher prices increase near-term downside probability. Long-term holders’ reduced selling could cap losses and point to a potential bottom around the 200-week MA, but Galaxy’s view raises the odds of further declines in the coming weeks. This is market commentary, not investment advice.
Bearish
The combined reporting and analysis point to a bearish near-term outlook for BTC. Key technical supports have been lost (50-week MA previously, price below MicroStrategy cost basis and under $80K), short-term indicators are weak (RSI, Supertrend, EMA20 resistance), and futures/spot flows show selling pressure. Galaxy’s forecast emphasizes a likely test of the supply gap around $70K and a possible realized-price region near $56K, with the 200-week MA (~$58K) the most likely historical stabilizer if declines continue. Mixed institutional sentiment (many firms view BTC as undervalued at higher levels) may limit aggressive capitulation, and reduced long-term holder selling could help form a bottom over time. However, absent clear accumulation or bullish catalysts, trader behavior is likely to favor risk-off positioning: shorter-term traders may trim longs, raise stop losses, or add protective hedges; derivatives traders could see elevated put demand and funding-rate-driven liquidations on leveraged long positions. Overall, expect increased volatility and downward pressure in the short term, with a possible stabilization only if price approaches the 200-week MA or if on-chain/institutional accumulation resumes.