GBP/USD at Risk as UK Jobs Data Nears — 1.3600 Support in Focus
GBP/USD opened the week under downside pressure with the 1.3600 level identified as a critical technical support. Traders are positioning for the upcoming UK labour market release from the ONS, which includes Unemployment Rate, Employment Change and Average Earnings ex-bonus (3m/YoY). Consensus: unemployment 4.3% (prior 4.2%), average earnings ex-bonus 5.9% (prior 6.1%), employment change +85k (prior +108k). A stronger-than-expected wage print would increase odds of a hawkish Bank of England and could trigger a short-term Sterling rally; weaker readings would reinforce the negative bias and risk a slide toward 1.3500. USD strength from resilient US data and shifting Fed expectations is adding pressure. Traders are advised to manage risk: reduce exposure, consider options straddles, or place breakout orders around 1.3700/1.3600. Implied volatility is likely to spike at release, affecting FX option costs. Longer-term Sterling direction will depend on subsequent inflation, spending and central bank communications alongside structural factors like the UK current account deficit.
Bearish
The article identifies a clear negative bias for GBP/USD driven by technical pressure toward the 1.3600 support and fundamental headwinds. Consensus UK jobs forecasts point to modest cooling in wage growth and employment change versus prior prints; if realized, these would reduce chances of further BoE tightening and weaken Sterling. Simultaneously, resilient US data and reduced expectations for Fed cuts support a stronger USD, compounding downside risk for GBP/USD. Historically, weaker-than-expected UK labour prints have prompted rapid Sterling sell-offs and triggered moves to nearby technical supports (e.g., previous drops toward 1.3500). In the short term, markets should expect elevated volatility and potential rapid declines if data misses; in the medium term, the pair will remain sensitive to incoming UK inflation, wage trends and BoE guidance. Traders should therefore treat the immediate outlook as bearish while monitoring for upside surprises that could briefly reverse the move.