Gemini launches US-wide CFTC-approved prediction market and waives trading fees
Gemini has launched Gemini Predictions, a CFTC‑approved prediction market now available across all 50 US states via its iOS app and website through affiliate Gemini Titan. The platform lets users take positions on real‑world events — including elections, economic data releases and market trends — with near‑instant execution and transparent settlement. Gemini is waiving trading fees for a limited time to attract early liquidity. The rollout comes after recent CFTC approval and follows broader industry momentum from rivals such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which together reported nearly $10 billion in combined volumes recently. Major exchanges and projects, including Coinbase and Binance‑linked initiatives, are also developing or integrating prediction products. Gemini’s move is part of a wider product expansion aimed at boosting trading volumes and user engagement; the firm has been expanding offerings (including token rewards, staking and tokenized equity) and reportedly considering additional US futures, options and perpetual products. The launch takes place in a comparatively friendlier US regulatory environment after earlier enforcement actions that had limited some platforms’ US services.
Neutral
Short term: Neutral — the launch may boost user activity on Gemini and attract order flow, but prediction markets historically represent a niche segment and fee waivers temporarily inflate volumes without guaranteeing sustained trading revenue. Impact on major crypto prices is likely limited because the product focuses on event contracts rather than spot trading of tokens. Long term: Mildly bullish for Gemini-specific volume and user engagement — adding a regulated, US‑wide product can improve platform stickiness and diversify revenue streams if it converts active users into broader trading customers. Regulatory approval reduces execution risk, but broader market impact depends on uptake, product expansion (futures/options) and whether liquidity sustains after fee promotions. Overall price pressure on mainstream tokens is expected to be limited; gains would be more material for platform usage metrics than direct crypto-price catalysts.