Gemini Seeks CFTC Approval for Prediction Market Contracts
Gemini has filed with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to become a designated contract market and launch regulated prediction market contracts. The new event-driven derivatives will cover sports, elections and economic outcomes. Gemini aims to tap a sector that posted record volumes and follows its $425 million IPO while addressing rising net losses.
As soon as CFTC approval arrives—typically within months—Gemini will compete with Polymarket, Kalshi, CME Group and Coinbase. The move diversifies Gemini’s product line and expands revenue streams beyond traditional spot and crypto derivatives trading.
Traders should watch for regulatory updates. Approval would open fresh markets on the Gemini platform. This could boost trading activity once the prediction market contracts go live.
Neutral
Short-term impact is limited as approval may take months. Gemini’s plan to launch prediction market contracts adds a regulated product and could boost future trading volumes. However, uncertainty over CFTC timing tempers immediate effects. Long-term, the new contracts diversify revenue and enhance Gemini’s competitive position. Overall, the move expands derivatives offerings but awaits regulatory nod, keeping price impact neutral for now.