Gemini cuts up to 25% of staff, exits UK/EU/Australia to focus on prediction markets
Gemini, the crypto exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is executing a major restructuring: up to 25% of staff (about 200 employees) will be cut and operations in the UK, EU and Australia will be wound down. Leadership cited regulatory hurdles and operational complexity abroad as reasons for the international pullback. Customer accounts in affected regions will be placed on withdrawal-only before full closures follow. The firm reported a prior $159.5m loss tied to IPO and marketing costs and expects an ~$11m charge for the current restructuring. Gemini is reallocating resources toward AI-related work and a strategic push into prediction markets — launching Gemini Predictions in December, which the company says has processed over $24m in volume from roughly 10,000 users. The company’s stock (GEMI) has fallen sharply from its September peak and slipped further after the announcement. The founders framed the downsizing as necessary to simplify operations, free engineering bandwidth, and pursue a “super app” vision combining money and markets. For traders: expect near-term volatility in GEMI tied to earnings and restructuring charges, potential shifts in liquidity for certain products as the exchange narrows regional services, and longer-term upside only if Gemini’s new product lines (prediction markets, AI integrations) materially grow revenue and user engagement.
Bearish
The restructuring and regional exit create clear near-term downside pressure on GEMI. The announced workforce reductions, an ~$11m restructuring charge and the prior $159.5m loss signal heightened short-term fiscal stress and reduced investor confidence. The stock has already fallen significantly from its peak, and further negative sentiment is likely as earnings and regional withdrawal timelines become clear. Operationally, exiting UK/EU/Australia reduces revenue diversification and could lower trading volumes and fee income from those markets, pressuring liquidity and short-term price performance. That said, the strategic shift toward prediction markets and AI is a potential long-term positive; however, these initiatives are early-stage (Gemini Predictions shows modest volume to date) and will take time to meaningfully affect revenue or valuation. For traders: expect heightened volatility and downside risk in the short term, with any sustained recovery dependent on measurable growth from new products and improved financials in subsequent quarters.