Gemini prediction markets: $589M 2025 loss, trading volumes fall, regulatory fight intensifies

Gemini (NASDAQ: GEMI) posted FY2025 results showing a major financial hit while pivoting toward prediction markets. The company reported 2025 net losses of about $589M (vs. $151M in 2024), alongside Q4 net loss of $140.8M (more than 5x Q4 2024). Revenue for Q4 was $60.3M (record, up ~40% YoY), but overall trading revenue fell over one-fifth in Q4 to $24.5M, with trading volume down for both retail (-38.4%) and institutional (-22%). Gemini’s only clear growth driver was its crypto-linked credit card segment: card signups rose from 38,000 (end-2024) to 145,000 (end-2025), lifting Q4 card revenue to just under $16M and FY card revenue to $33.1M (+185%). The shift to Gemini prediction markets has also drawn investor scrutiny, including a class-action lawsuit over the “viability” of Gemini’s core crypto platform ahead of its Nasdaq listing. Regulatory context is mixed for Gemini prediction markets. CFTC Chair Michael Selig recently praised prediction markets as “decentralized truth,” supporting federal oversight. However, US states continue to challenge operators in court, with cases against Kalshi and Polymarket, including allegations of unlicensed “event contracts.” Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi’s parent companies related to election wagering. At the same time, MLB named Polymarket its “official prediction market exchange,” citing integrity commitments, while US lawmakers introduced stricter proposals targeting “death” and violence-related event trading. For traders, the message is clear: Gemini prediction markets may gain regulatory attention, but legal and state-level enforcement risk remains a headwind.