Gemini exit highlights UK rule uncertainty as firms reconsider market commitments
Gemini’s decision to exit the UK, EU and Australia to refocus on the US and Singapore has intensified scrutiny of the UK’s unfinished crypto rulebook. Industry figures— including Susie Violet Ward (Bitcoin Policy UK), Laura Navaratnam (Crypto Council for Innovation) and CoinJar CEO Asher Tan—warn that protracted rulemaking, overlapping regimes (AML registration, financial promotions rules, FCA consultations, and forthcoming prudential rules), and high compliance costs are deterring firms from building in the UK. The FCA is consulting on CP25/42, proposing a prudential regime with capital and liquidity requirements for trading platforms, staking and dealing activities; full authorization will be required during a five‑month gateway from Sept. 30, 2026 to Feb. 28, 2027, with the new regime due to take effect Oct. 25, 2027. Critics say unclear interaction between FCA stablecoin rules and the Bank of England’s systemic regime risks a “cliff edge” for firms. The article notes industry retrenchment is global (examples include Coinbase exits from some markets) and that firms weighing whether to remain in the UK must decide if committing resources to meet new standards is worth the opportunity. No financial figures from Gemini were disclosed; Gemini declined to comment when contacted.
Bearish
Gemini’s withdrawal and industry commentary increase regulatory uncertainty for the UK crypto market. For traders, uncertain or burdensome regulation tends to reduce liquidity and market participation from institutional players, which can widen spreads, increase volatility and lower order-book depth—conditions that are bearish for short-term price stability and for adoption-driven upside. Historical parallels: when major exchanges withdrew or limited services in a jurisdiction (e.g., Coinbase exits from certain markets), local liquidity and trading volumes fell and price discovery weakened. In the medium term, if the FCA’s consultations (CP25/42) clarify rules and the gateway process is managed smoothly, confidence could recover; that would be a neutral-to-mildly bullish development. However, until key interactions (stablecoin vs Bank of England systemic rules) and compliance burdens are resolved, firms may continue to retrench, keeping downward pressure on UK-listed crypto activity and dampening institutional inflows—overall a bearish signal.