Glamsterdam Upgrade Poised to Split ETH from Bitcoin, Targeting 10,000+ TPS
Ethereum’s scheduled hard fork, Glamsterdam, has entered final testing for a first-half 2026 launch. Key technical changes include Enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation (ePBS) and Block-Level Access Lists (EIP-7928). Together with a raised gas limit to 200 million and lower node hardware requirements, these changes aim to convert Ethereum’s base layer from a single-lane ledger into a parallel-processing platform capable of 10,000+ transactions per second (TPS). The upgrade is positioned to support an emergent "Agentic Economy" of AI-driven microtransactions that Bitcoin’s architecture cannot easily accommodate. Market observers expect Glamsterdam to reduce mainnet congestion and stabilize gas fees; if successful, ETH may decouple from Bitcoin (BTC) price correlation. Traders are watching for a potential pre-fork rally toward the end of Q1 2026, drawing parallels to the run-up before the 2024 Dencun upgrade. The article cautions this is analysis and not investment advice.
Bullish
The Glamsterdam upgrade contains multiple pro-scaling technical changes (ePBS, EIP-7928, raised gas limit, lower node requirements) that directly address throughput, congestion and gas-fee volatility—primary pain points for users and developers. Historically, major successful Ethereum upgrades (for example, the 2024 Dencun upgrade) triggered speculative rallies and increased on-chain activity ahead of and after activation as traders priced in expected utility and demand. If Glamsterdam demonstrably raises base-layer TPS and stabilizes fees, demand for ETH (for gas and staking-related utilities) could rise and weaken ETH-BTC correlation, producing a bullish effect. Short-term: likely increased volatility and a potential pre-fork rally as traders position for upgrade-driven demand and front-run fee dynamics. There is downside risk—failed tests, delayed activation, or unexpected post-fork issues could trigger sharp sell pressure. Long-term: successful delivery would improve network capacity for AI-driven microtransactions and decentralized apps, strengthening fundamentals and supporting a structural bullish case for ETH relative to BTC. Overall, net effect is bullish but contingent on smooth implementation.