Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF Netflows Turn Negative as Monthly Outflows Persist
Glassnode on-chain data shows 30-day simple moving average (SMA) netflows for US spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs have been predominantly negative across recent months. Both summaries report the largest outflows in Q4 2025, with outflows continuing into early 2026 and only a brief, short-lived positive netflow during January’s price recovery. Analysts link the red netflows to recent price drawdowns; Glassnode finds no clear sign of renewed institutional demand through the spot ETF channel. At reporting times BTC prices differed between pieces (about $88,000 in the earlier summary and roughly $69,200 in the later one), but both note recent weekly price moves — a ~3.5% seven-day drop in the earlier piece and a ~5% seven-day rise in the later one. Key points for traders: sustained negative 30-day SMA netflows for BTC and ETH spot ETFs (indicator of net institutional outflows), largest ETF outflows occurred in Q4 2025, only fleeting inflows in January, and no current evidence of renewed demand via spot ETFs. Monitor ETF netflows and price action for continued selling pressure or signs of renewed institutional inflows before positioning for a sustained trend reversal.
Bearish
Sustained negative 30-day SMA netflows for US spot BTC and ETH ETFs point to ongoing institutional outflows — a direct bearish indicator for BTC and ETH price pressure. Historical behavior shows that ETF inflows support upward momentum by adding fresh capital and reducing available supply; conversely, persistent outflows increase selling pressure or reflect reduced buying demand from large, price-sensitive players. The summaries report the largest outflows in Q4 2025 and only transient inflows in January, while Glassnode notes no clear return of institutional demand. Short-term impact: likely continued volatility and downside risk while outflows persist; traders should expect increased sensitivity to negative news and larger drawdowns during market stress. Long-term impact: if outflows continue, they could cap recoveries and delay a sustained bull phase until institutional demand reappears. Key actions for traders: monitor ETF netflow SMA, on-chain reserve metrics, and large-cap order flow; consider risk management (smaller position sizes, tighter stops) until netflows stabilize or flip consistently positive.