Glassnode: Bitcoin Realized Losses Drop Below 1 — Bear Market Signal
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports the 90-day simple moving average of Bitcoin’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1, indicating that realized losses now exceed realized profits across the network. Historically, breaches below 1 have persisted for six months or more and have coincided with deep bear phases (notably 2018 and 2022). The ratio fell from ~1.5 in early February and ~1.32 in late January to under 1 by Feb 24, 2026. Glassnode called this a transition to an “excess loss-realization regime.” CryptoQuant and other analysts note whale metrics (Unspent Profitability Ratios) now mirror levels seen around May–June 2022, a period that preceded significant downside before the later market bottom. Context: realized profits had collapsed from over $1B (Q4 2025) to $183.8M by December 2025, briefly allowing BTC to rally above $96,000 in January. As of the report, BTC traded near $63,200, down ~3.6% in 24 hours and ~29% over the past month, roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high. Macro headwinds — including U.S. tariff proposals — are cited as drivers rather than structural on-chain failures. Some analysts remain long-term constructive, calling current volatility a maturation phase, while technical warnings (a potential three-day “death cross”) suggest possible further declines. Key metrics: 90-day SMA Realized Profit/Loss Ratio < 1; realized profits 7-day avg fell from >$1B to $183.8M in Dec 2025; BTC price ~ $63,200 at time of writing. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, realized losses, Glassnode, Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, bear market. Secondary keywords: on-chain analytics, whale activity, Unspent Profitability Ratio, death cross, macro headwinds.
Bearish
The drop of the 90-day SMA Realized Profit/Loss Ratio below 1 is a classic on-chain signal of loss-dominant selling and liquidity withdrawal. Historically, similar breaks (2018, 2022) preceded prolonged drawdowns and extended recovery periods. Additional confirmation comes from whale-related metrics (UPR) matching levels seen ahead of the 2022 downside, and from realized profit flows collapsing from >$1B to ~$184M — evidence of reduced buyer support. Macro catalysts (tariff proposals) amplify risk-off sentiment, increasing probability of forced selling. Technical risk (possible three-day death cross) adds near-term downside pressure. For traders: expect elevated volatility, a higher chance of sustained selling pressure, and limited scope for a meaningful rally until on-chain liquidity metrics recover above 1 and realized profits stabilize. Short-term strategy implications: favor defensive positions — reduce leverage, tighten stops, consider hedges (puts or inverse products), and avoid aggressive long entries until confirmation of liquidity return. Long-term investors may view weakness as accumulation opportunity if fundamentals remain unchanged, but should be prepared for protracted consolidation or deeper drawdowns as comparable historical episodes lasted months.