Analysts: Bitcoin Can Rise Independently of Gold; Bitcoin–Gold Ratio May Halve by 2026
Analysts debate whether Bitcoin’s upside is tied to gold as the Bitcoin–gold ratio trades near 20. Glassnode lead analyst James Check and macro strategist Lyn Alden argue Bitcoin (BTC) can continue rising even if gold and silver hold firm, citing distinct long-term drivers such as scarcity and institutional adoption. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone offers a contrasting scenario: the Bitcoin–gold ratio could compress from ~20x to ~10x by 2026 — a halving of the ratio that could occur even with BTC’s USD price roughly unchanged. Other voices vary: veteran trader Peter Brandt warns of possible BTC lows near $50k–$60k by 2026; Michael van de Poppe and others expect BTC to recover and may rise alongside gold; Zaner Metals’ Peter Grant points to Fed policy, dollar weakness and geopolitics as volatility drivers. Current market context: BTC is trading near $87,600 (about 30% below an October peak near $125,100), gold near $4,533/oz and silver above $77 — both at recent highs. Sentiment is divergent (Gold Fear & Greed ~79 vs Crypto Fear & Greed ~24). Key takeaways for traders: monitor the Bitcoin–gold ratio as a macro correlation signal; watch Fed guidance, USD strength/weakness and geopolitical risk; prepare for possible ratio compression that could pressure BTC relative returns by 2026; use hedges, paired trades or position-sizing adjustments to manage risk amid mixed analyst views and elevated macro uncertainty.
Neutral
The combined coverage presents balanced, conflicting analyst views rather than a clear directional signal for BTC price. Bullish cases argue Bitcoin can rise independently due to scarcity and institutional demand, while bearish scenarios (notably McGlone and Brandt) highlight a possible compression of the Bitcoin–gold ratio or downside to $50k–$60k by 2026. Near-term market context is mixed: BTC is ~30% below its high while gold and silver are at record levels, and sentiment indicators show crypto-specific fear versus gold greed. For traders this implies no decisive outright bullish or bearish call on BTC price today — instead the news increases focus on macro drivers (Fed policy, USD, geopolitics) and the Bitcoin–gold ratio as a relative-value signal. Short-term volatility could rise on macro news; medium-to-long-term outcomes depend on whether gold’s strength persists and whether institutional flows favor BTC or precious metals. Recommended actions are risk-management focused: monitor the ratio, use hedges or paired trades, and size positions conservatively until a clearer trend emerges.