Glassnode: Bitcoin Showing Signals of Bottoming Rather Than Early Bear Phase
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports that Bitcoin’s current bear-market structure more closely resembles a later-stage bottoming phase than the early contraction stage. The firm focused on the ‘Total Supply in Loss’ metric (7-day moving average), which recently rose to about 9.2 million BTC — near the highest level since the end of the last bear market and roughly half of circulating supply (~20 million BTC). Historically, peaks in this metric have coincided with market bottoms (notably 2018 and 2022), as concentrated unrealized losses eventually exhaust profit-taking and selling pressure. Although the indicator has not yet exceeded previous cyclical highs, its structure mirrors prior late-stage bear environments. Glassnode cautions volatility and fragility persist. At the time of the report, BTC traded around $67,300 after briefly recovering above $69,000. Key keywords: Bitcoin, Total Supply in Loss, Glassnode, on-chain metrics, market bottom.
Bullish
Glassnode’s analysis points to a higher concentration of unrealized losses (Total Supply in Loss ≈ 9.2M BTC, ~50% of circulating supply), a pattern that historically aligns with market bottoms (2018, 2022). When unrealized-loss concentration peaks, selling pressure tied to profit-taking typically wanes, which can reduce downside momentum and set conditions for accumulation. For traders, this suggests a constructive tilt: lower probability of a prolonged fresh leg down and higher chance of consolidation and buying opportunities. Short-term implications: continued volatility and pullbacks are possible — traders should watch on-chain flows, realized/ unrealized metrics, and spot/liquidation volumes for confirmation. Long-term implications: if the metric reaches or exceeds prior cyclical highs while BTC price stabilizes or advances, broader market recovery and renewed risk-on behavior become more likely. Caveats: the indicator is not definitive — macro shocks, regulatory news, or large liquidations can reverse sentiment quickly. Comparable historical context: both 2018 and 2022 saw similar indicator peaks near cycle lows followed by multi-month recoveries. Overall, the report implies a cautiously bullish bias for traders, favoring measured accumulation with risk controls.