Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs See Persistent Outflows Since November, Glassnode Flags Institutional Pullback
Glassnode reports that major spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds have recorded sustained net outflows since early November, with the 30-day simple moving average (30D‑SMA) of flows turning and remaining negative. Combined outflows across conventional markets total roughly $952 million over the seven- to eight-week period. Although outflow intensity has eased recently, the persistent negative 30D‑SMA points to muted institutional participation and partial disengagement from crypto allocations. Analysts link the trend to broader risk-off conditions—equities and commodities (gold, silver, copper) have outperformed while BTC traded defensively. Historical precedent shows similar outflow phases (March–April) later reversed into large inflows and a multi-month BTC rally, so reversals remain possible. For traders: expect elevated ETF-related selling pressure on BTC and ETH, tighter liquidity, and higher short-term volatility and downside risk. Key indicators to watch are ETF net flows, the 30D‑SMA trend, spot price reactions, and capital shifts into competing assets; select funds (notably BlackRock’s IBIT) have shown relative resilience, attracting inflows and long-term capital despite negative YTD returns.
Bearish
Sustained net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs and a negative 30D‑SMA indicate reduced institutional demand and withdrawing liquidity, which increases selling pressure and short-term downside risk for BTC and ETH. Combined outflows (~$952m over 7–8 weeks) point to meaningful capital leaving spot markets; that typically weighs on prices as ETFs are large liquidity conduits. While outflow intensity has moderated and some funds (e.g., IBIT) still attract inflows—leaving room for localized resilience—the overall balance favors risk-off dynamics. Historically, similar outflow periods have reversed into inflows and rallies, so a rebound is possible if large buyers re-enter. For traders: expect higher volatility, potential continuation of downward pressure until ETF flows stabilize or reverse, and close monitoring of 30D‑SMA, daily ETF flows, and capital movements into competing assets for signs of capitulation or renewed institutional demand.