Glassnode warns XRP onchain setup mirrors 2022 pattern that preceded 68% crash
Glassnode data indicates XRP’s current onchain market structure closely resembles February 2022, a pattern that preceded a 68% drawdown. The firm says investors active over the 1-week to 1-month window are accumulating below the cost basis of the 6–12 month cohort, creating overhead pressure if key supports are not reclaimed. The $2 level is highlighted as a critical psychological and technical threshold: repeated retests since early 2025 corresponded to $500M–$1.2B in weekly realized losses, implying sellers cut positions there. If $2 fails, Glassnode and chart fractals suggest a deeper correction — potentially toward $1.40, $1.25, or as low as roughly $1.03 near the 200-week moving average, mirroring 2022 behavior that took XRP from $0.78 to $0.30. Adding to sell-side pressure, spot XRP ETFs recorded net outflows of about $53.3M — the second-ever outflow day and the largest since ETF launch — signaling institutional caution or profit-taking. Technical notes: XRP has broken below the 50-day SMA (~$2), increasing downside risk. The article frames these indicators as warning signals rather than investment advice.
Bearish
The indicators in the article point to a bearish outlook. Glassnode highlights a market structure where shorter-term buyers are accumulating below the cost basis of 6–12 month holders, creating overhead supply and psychological pressure if the $2 support is not reclaimed. Historical precedent in February–June 2022 produced a 68% drawdown after a similar pattern and successive support breaks. Technical signals reinforce risk: XRP has fallen below its 50-day SMA (~$2), and repeated retests of the $2 level have historically coincided with large realized losses ($500M–$1.2B weekly), indicating sellers are inclined to exit at that zone. Institutional flows amplify the bearish case — spot XRP ETFs posted ~$53.3M net outflows (the largest since launch), showing risk-off positioning or profit-taking. Short-term implications: elevated downside risk, increased volatility, and likely further selling if $2 fails; traders should watch intraday support around $1.80–$2 and potential targets at $1.40, $1.25, and ~$1.03. Long-term implications: if the market reclaims $2 and reverses realized-loss dynamics, pressure could ease and support price recovery; if not, a prolonged correction similar to 2022 remains possible. Risk management: reduce leveraged long exposure, set stops near key supports, monitor ETF flows and realized-loss metrics for early signs of capitulation or recovery.