Global push for crypto AML and tax rules, but gaps remain on systemic risk
International bodies have advanced global standards for digital assets in 2025, with notable progress on AML/CFT and tax transparency but uneven adoption on systemic-risk treatment. The FATF’s Travel Rule (Recommendation 16) and related AML guidance have driven wider VASP oversight: by mid‑2025 most jurisdictions have moved to adopt Travel Rule laws and 99 jurisdictions have passed or are enacting related legislation, though the FATF still reports partial or non‑compliance in many states and maintains a grey list for laggards. The OECD’s Crypto‑Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) gained traction—76 jurisdictions committed to automatic exchange of crypto tax data, including the U.S., U.K., Brazil, Japan and most EU countries—while some key adopters (India, Argentina, El Salvador, Georgia, Vietnam) remain outside full commitment; the U.S. won’t begin CARF exchanges until 2029. The BIS focuses on systemic risks in sub‑segments such as stablecoins and tokenization, prompting legislation and supervisory regimes (e.g., UK and EU designating some stablecoins as systemic; the U.S. passed stablecoin law in 2025). Divergent stances persist—particularly the U.S. political climate under the 2025 administration is more industry‑friendly and unlikely to label crypto as broadly systemic. For traders: expect continued regulatory-driven volume shifts, compliance costs and jurisdictional arbitrage. Key takeaways: stronger AML and tax reporting momentum, patchy global implementation, concentrated regulatory scrutiny on stablecoins and tokenized assets, and geopolitical variation that will keep cross‑border flows and onshore/offshore liquidity patterns in flux.
Neutral
The news signals growing global regulatory convergence on AML/CFT (FATF Travel Rule) and tax transparency (OECD CARF), which reduces anonymity and increases compliance costs—factors that can temper speculative flows. At the same time, the BIS and major jurisdictions target specific subsegments (stablecoins, tokenization) rather than declaring the whole sector systemic. Market effects are therefore mixed: in the short term, heightened enforcement and reporting requirements may cause volatility, reduced offshore liquidity in non‑compliant jurisdictions, and temporary sell‑pressure as firms adjust. In the medium to long term, clearer rules and increased tax transparency can improve institutional confidence and funding, supporting deeper markets and potentially higher valuations once compliance burdens are absorbed. Historical parallels: announcements and enforcement of AML/tax rules after 2019–2021 led to temporary outflows from less regulated exchanges and compressed spreads, but ultimately supported institutional onboarding in 2022–2024. Given uneven adoption (notably some large jurisdictions delaying or opting out on timelines), traders should expect jurisdictional arbitrage, regulatory news‑driven spikes around enforcement actions, and sector rotation toward regulated venues and compliant assets—hence a neutral overall categorization.