Rare Global Liquidity Signal Echoes 2021 Setup — Could ETH Rally 200% Again?
A recurring macro setup linking global liquidity, the Russell 2000 index and Ether price has reappeared, prompting speculation that ETH could follow a large rally similar to 2021. Analyst Sykodelic outlined a three-step sequence: a breakout in global liquidity, followed by a Russell 2000 breakout, and then a delayed Ether breakout. The same order has been observed on current monthly charts; Russell has already reached a new high (2,738), while global liquidity has broken out. In 2021, this sequence preceded a 226% surge in ETH between March and November. Onchain data from CryptoQuant shows realized price for ETH accumulation addresses rising to about $2,720 — a level that has historically acted as strong support for long-term holders. Analysts estimate downside to that accumulation zone could be roughly 7% if tested. The article highlights that liquidity conditions and Russell 2000 leadership historically led ETH price discovery, suggesting a potentially bullish mid-term outlook for ETH if correlations hold. This is market commentary, not investment advice.
Bullish
The article describes a macro sequence — global liquidity breakout, Russell 2000 leadership, then delayed ETH breakout — that historically preceded a major ETH rally in 2021 (226% gain). Key supporting factors present now: confirmed global liquidity breakout, Russell 2000 at new highs (2,738), and rising realized price for ETH accumulation addresses (~$2,720), which implies active accumulation and a nearby support zone with limited downside (~7%). These elements together increase the probability of a bullish outcome for ETH, particularly in the medium term (weeks to a few months), mirroring the prior cycle where ETH lagged equities and liquidity moves by ~119 days. Short-term volatility remains possible — funding rates, trader positioning, and macro shocks could produce pullbacks — but the structural indicators favor upside if correlations persist. Past precedent (2021) supports higher gains when liquidity-driven risk-on regimes emerge; traders should watch Russell 2000 momentum, liquidity measures, accumulation-address realized price, and time lag for breakout confirmation. Manage risk with stop levels below the $2,720 accumulation zone and position sizing given potential drawdowns despite a bullish bias.