Global markets end 2025 with big gains; easing Fed policy could lift crypto in 2026
Global markets posted strong returns as 2025 closed: S&P 500 roughly +18%, Nasdaq Composite +22%, Dow Jones +15%. Precious metals surged — gold up ~75% year-to-date and silver up ~172%, pushing silver’s market value toward $4.5 trillion. The Kobeissi Letter argues that continued U.S. monetary easing in 2026 (Fed rate cuts and end of QT) could accelerate risk-on flows into equities and higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Political drivers such as calls for lower interest rates and stimulus proposals may keep liquidity elevated. The report highlights a potential “catch-up” scenario for crypto in 2026: despite isolated all-time highs in 2025, crypto underperformed overall during the year; renewed risk appetite and clearer peaks in stocks and precious metals might redirect capital into Bitcoin and altcoins. Institutional acceptance of Bitcoin is noted as improving, which could support inflows should macro conditions turn more dovish. The article cautions that this is not investment advice and reminds readers of crypto’s high volatility.
Bullish
The article links strong 2025 market performance and a likely sequence of Fed rate cuts and end of quantitative tightening to a higher risk appetite in 2026. Historically, dovish monetary policy and abundant liquidity have supported risk assets and periodic crypto rallies (e.g., 2020–2021 post-cut liquidity surge). Institutional acceptance of Bitcoin, noted in the piece, lowers some barriers to capital flows. If stocks and precious metals form a peak, reallocation into assets with perceived higher return potential — including crypto — is plausible. Short-term impact: news of continued easing and elevated liquidity expectations can trigger immediate bullish price moves and increased volatility as traders rotate into crypto. Long-term impact: sustained policy easing could support structural inflows and higher valuations for BTC and select altcoins, though fundamentals and regulatory developments remain key risks. Caveats: the article is scenario-based, not a certainty; political shifts, faster inflation, or adverse regulatory actions could reverse the expected effect, making the overall outlook conditional rather than guaranteed.