Gold’s 10-Year Super Run May Be Peaking — Could Capital Rotate Into Stocks and Crypto
Gold has surged roughly 427% since 2016 and recently touched about $5,600, a level Bull Theory says historically marks the end zone for decade-long gold super runs. Prior cycles (1970–1980: +2,403%; 2001–2011: +655%) lasted ~9–10 years then cooled while capital rotated into long equity bull markets. Bull Theory argues the same macro signals — inflation cooling, rising real rates, Fed tightening and a firmer dollar — typically precede peaks. The key difference in 2026 is crypto’s maturity: institutional adoption, active ETFs and corporate BTC holdings mean post-gold rotation may not flow solely into stocks but also into Bitcoin and high-beta crypto assets. Traders should note gold is in its 10th year of the cycle, gains are large but a top isn’t confirmed; however, historical patterns suggest a multi-year rotation could follow, potentially boosting risk-on assets including equities and crypto.
Bullish
Historical cycles show that multi-year gold surges tended to peak after ~9–10 years, then capital rotated into risk-on assets — primarily equities. The 2026 cycle matches that timeline: gold is up ~427 since 2016 and recently hit new highs near $5,600, signaling late-stage behavior. The critical difference now is that crypto, especially Bitcoin (BTC), is a mature recipient for institutional flows via ETFs and balance-sheet allocations. If a rotation occurs, inflows are likely to distribute between equities and crypto, supporting higher prices for Bitcoin and selected high-beta altcoins. Short term, expect volatility: a topping process in gold could cause quick reallocations and capital flows that spike BTC and risky assets intraday. Medium-to-long term, sustained Fed tightening and a stronger dollar could cap gold while enabling multi-year equity and crypto rallies similar to post-1980 and post-2011 periods. Therefore the net market bias is bullish for risk assets (including crypto), contingent on macro evidence of cooling inflation and enduring policy shifts. Risks: if inflation remains elevated or real rates stay low, gold could maintain strength and delay rotation, producing a neutral or mixed outcome instead.