Gold Price Jumps on US-Iran Ceasefire Extension as Dollar Slips—Conviction Still Weak

Gold price rose about 1.8% to around $2,485/oz in London trading after the US-Iran agreed to extend their ceasefire by 90 days. The immediate driver was a US dollar retreat: the DXY fell ~0.6%, easing demand for the greenback as a safe haven. Spot gold traded roughly between $2,460 and $2,492, while volume was ~15% below the 30-day average. Despite the gold price breakout attempt, analysts flagged “lack of bullish conviction.” COMEX gold open interest rose only ~2.1% and major gold ETFs saw minimal movement (GLD inflows about 0.8 tonnes). Price action also failed to clear the key $2,500 resistance area. Geopolitical context remains temporary. The extension keeps nuclear monitoring in place and maintains existing sanctions frameworks. Markets showed cautious relief: Brent crude fell ~2.1% to ~$78.30/bbl and Treasury yields edged lower, while institutional commentary said structural tensions are unresolved. Policy and positioning remain central. The Fed rate is 4.25%–4.50% and real rates are still positive (~1.2%), which typically weighs on non-yielding assets like gold. Physical demand signals were softer (India imports down YoY; China weekly demand slightly below 2024). For traders, the gold price move looks more like dollar-driven reaction/short covering than a sustained trend.