Gold Rally Extends as Fed Cut Bets Rise and Oil Falls

Gold prices extended their rally on Wednesday as traders reassessed the Federal Reserve outlook alongside softer crude oil prices. The move is being driven by a blend of macro signals: a softer-than-expected jobs report and cooling inflation data are pushing markets toward a higher probability of interest-rate cuts later this year. For Gold, lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset and can weaken the U.S. dollar, both of which typically support demand. At the same time, crude oil has retreated from recent highs, easing inflation concerns. With energy costs a major input to headline inflation, cheaper oil can help reinforce disinflation expectations and give the Fed more room to consider easing without reigniting inflation. Traders are now watching upcoming CPI and PPI releases for confirmation that inflation is trending sustainably lower. If inflation data undershoots expectations, Gold could see further upside as the case for monetary easing strengthens. Positioning also points to bullish momentum: CFTC data cited in the article shows speculative long positions in gold futures have risen sharply, while ETF and futures activity has improved. On the technical side, Gold has broken above key resistance near $2,400/oz, with analysts eyeing $2,500 as the next psychological level. Risks include a surprise inflation rebound, a more hawkish Fed signal, or a sharp oil price rebound that would challenge the current disinflation narrative. Keywords used: Gold, Federal Reserve, rate cuts, inflation, oil prices, CPI, PPI, CFTC, ETF, futures.