Gold & Silver Add $16T in 2025 as Bitcoin Falls; China Tightens Silver Exports
Gold and silver added roughly $16 trillion to combined market value in 2025, driven by a ~9% year-to-date US dollar decline and Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in September, Bloomberg data shows. Gold’s gains outpaced the S&P 500 by about four times. Silver led the rally — up roughly 175% year-to-date with an eight-month winning streak and a 41% jump in December, Shanghai silver trading near $85/oz and at a multi-dollar premium to US spot. China’s stronger physical activity is a key factor: the People’s Bank of China reported 118 tonnes of silver purchases in Q3, while external analysts (e.g., Goldman Sachs) estimate much larger covert accumulation. Beijing will require export licences for silver shipments from Jan 1, 2026, prompting pre-rule buying in Shanghai and tightening available physical supply. By contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) is down about 6% for 2025 after earlier gains and a leveraged-driven crypto market crash. Key drivers for traders: US dollar weakness, Fed easing, central-bank and institutional accumulation of precious metals, China’s export controls and elevated physical demand, and deleveraging in crypto markets. Actionable considerations: reduce crypto directional leverage, monitor Fed guidance and dollar moves, track China physical flows and new export rules, watch silver premiums in Shanghai as a supply signal, and reassess portfolio exposure to safe-haven metals versus risk assets. Primary keywords: silver price, gold rally, Bitcoin, China silver export controls, Fed rate cuts. Secondary/semantic keywords: Shanghai silver premium, PBoC purchases, US dollar weakness, leveraged unwind, market volatility.
Bearish
The news is bearish for Bitcoin (BTC). Macro conditions driving precious metals — US dollar weakness and Fed rate cuts — have reallocated capital into gold and silver, with silver showing extreme outperformance driven by physical demand and China’s tightening export rules. That reallocation reduces liquidity and speculative capital available to crypto risk assets. Additionally, the article cites a leveraged-driven crypto crash earlier in 2025; ongoing deleveraging increases downside pressure and volatility for BTC in the short term. China’s export controls and large-scale central-bank accumulation are structural flows favoring metals over crypto, which suggests a sustained headwind for BTC price recovery until risk-on liquidity returns. In the medium-to-long term, if dollar weakness continues and macro liquidity increases further, crypto could recover — but current signals (physical buying, supply tightening in metals and prior crypto deleveraging) point to continued risk-off conditions that are negative for BTC price momentum.