Gold (XAU/USD) Breaks Out, Targets $5,100 as Uptrend Resumes
Gold (XAU/USD) has resumed a strong bullish trend after a decisive breakout above the key resistance at $4,800 following about six weeks of consolidation. Technical indicators — including an ascending triangle measured move, 50- and 200-day moving averages aligned bullishly, RSI near 68, and a 42% volume increase during the breakout — support continuation toward a primary target of $5,100 and a secondary extension near $5,400 (1.618 Fib). Immediate support is at $4,750. Fundamentals back the move: softer expected Fed tightening, steady central bank gold purchases (~290 tonnes recently per World Gold Council), geopolitical risk, low real yields, and currency weakness. Strategists cite valuation models and money-supply metrics that place fair value in the $4,900–$5,300 range; COT data shows managed-money long positions with room to grow. Risks include a failure to hold $4,750, a sustained US dollar rally, or a sudden rise in real interest rates that would raise gold’s opportunity cost. For traders: watch price action around $4,750 support, volume confirmation on advances, the $5,100 breakout as a trigger for further upside, and macro cues (Fed guidance, DXY, real yields, ETF flows) that could accelerate or reverse the trend. This report is informational and not trading advice.
Bullish
The article combines strong technical evidence (breakout above $4,800, ascending triangle measured move, bullish moving averages, RSI ~68, 42% volume spike) with supportive fundamentals (softening Fed tightening expectations, central bank purchases, low real yields, geopolitical risk and currency weakness). Historically similar technical breakouts accompanied by institutional volume preceded sustained rallies (noted 2020 and 2022). Managed-money positions are net long but not extreme, leaving room for additional buying. For traders this implies a favorable risk/reward: short-term momentum trades can target $5,100 with stop management near $4,750; a decisive weekly close above $5,100 would likely open higher targets (e.g., $5,400). Conversely, a failure to hold $4,750 or a sudden rise in real yields/usd strength would invalidate the bullish case. Overall, the mix of chart confirmation and macro tailwinds points to continued upside in both short and medium term, while key macro data and central bank communications remain the main catalysts for acceleration or reversal.