Goldman dey see three Fed cuts after Jackson Hole, e like short-term treasuries
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell go talk for di Jackson Hole symposium on August 22 as inflation and work market tjings dey waka uncertain. Even though market dey expect say Fed go cut rate 25 basis points for September with 84.8% chance, Powell no go likely make e clearly show say e wan reduce rate, im go rather talk say dem go depend on data and dey flexible with policy.
Goldman Sachs no agree with short term caution, dem dey expect say Fed go cut rate three times for September, October, and December because monthly job things don slow down to about 30,000 instead of 80,000 wey full employment need. Di bank dey warn say temporary hiring dey reduce, growth for most sectors no dey move well and future data fit come down too. Goldman analysts still talk say if unemployment shoot high, dem fit cut as much as 50 basis points.
For this matter, Goldman suggest say make person get long position for short-term U.S. Treasuries, them expect say yields go drop when dem cut rates. Traders suppose dey watch Jackson Hole speech well for any change for Powell tone but make dem get ready for rate cut matter later dis year.
Bullish
Fed rate cuts dey usually reduce borrowing costs and boost liquidity, e dey encourage risk-on trading for assets like cryptocurrencies. Goldman Sachs forecast of three rate cuts and shift toward short-term U.S. Treasuries show say e dey signal easing cycle wey dey historically support crypto markets. For example, the 2019 Fed pivot cause surge for Bitcoin and Ethereum prices as investors dey find higher yields. For short term, traders suppose watch Powell’s Jackson Hole talk to sabi the right timing, but medium-to-long-term outlook still dey bullish as easing dey increase capital flows into crypto.