Goldman Cuts Gold Target to $4,900; Bitcoin Faces Rate-Delay Pressure
Goldman Sachs cut its year-end gold forecast by $500/oz to $4,900 from $5,400, citing fading expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Bloomberg says Goldman still expects gold to rise from current levels, but the upside move looks smaller and the near-term risk has weakened.
The revision comes as Goldman no longer expects the Fed to cut rates in 2026, pushing the next expected cuts to 2027 (previously forecast sooner). With the Fed holding rates at 3.50%–3.75% and inflation still above the 2% target, cash and bonds remain more attractive, which can weigh on non-yielding assets like gold—and on risk appetite.
Reuters reported spot gold is set for a third weekly loss, with the dollar firmer and hawkish Fed signals pressuring prices. The article links the same liquidity dynamic to Bitcoin: a delayed easing cycle typically reduces market liquidity and raises the cost of capital, which has historically pressured crypto.
Bitcoin was recently trading lower after stronger U.S. jobless claims reinforced a hawkish Fed outlook, and traders cut risk ahead of the Fed decision. For crypto traders, the key watchpoints are inflation prints, rate-odds, and dollar strength, because they can drive both short-term volatility in Bitcoin and longer-term trend shifts if the Fed actually pivots.
Bearish
The core market message is that “higher-for-longer” rate expectations have regained traction. Goldman’s cut to its gold target (down to $4,900) is paired with a more delayed Fed easing timeline (no 2026 cuts; next in 2027). For traders, this matters because both gold and Bitcoin can suffer when cash and Treasuries stay relatively more attractive and liquidity tightens.
Historically, when Fed cut expectations are pushed further out, BTC often experiences downside pressure through two channels: (1) reduced risk appetite ahead of clearer easing signals and (2) higher real yields that make non-yielding or high-duration assets less compelling. The article also echoes recent market behavior: Bitcoin slid after macro data reinforced hawkish policy expectations, and traders trimmed exposure around the Fed event.
Short term, expect continued volatility and a risk-off bias in Bitcoin as rate odds and the dollar move. Long term, the outlook depends on whether inflation cools and the Fed eventually turns softer; if that happens, the same liquidity tailwind could reverse the pressure and support a rebound. Until then, the baseline remains cautious for BTC, with gold behaving as a parallel “sentiment/liquidity” gauge.