Goldman Sachs Cuts Gold Forecast as Fed Rate Cuts Pushed Back
Goldman Sachs reduced its end-of-year gold price forecast by $500/oz, citing a revised view that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not cut rates in 2026. In its report, analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven lowered the December gold target to $4,900/oz. They remain structurally constructive on gold, but adopt a more cautious tactical stance due to near-term downside risks.
The downgrade is mainly tied to later Fed-cut expectations. Goldman’s economists pushed the timing of potential cuts to June and December next year (previously December 2026 and March 2027). The bank also revised down its outlook for inflows into gold ETFs, contributing to the lower gold forecast. On policy credibility, the analysts noted that concerns about central-bank independence may be limited after the Fed’s first meeting under Chair Powell (described as “unexpectedly hawkish”).
For traders, the key takeaway is that a “later Fed easing” scenario can pressure gold and influence broader risk sentiment through USD and real-rate expectations.
Bearish
This is bearish for crypto mainly through macro channels. Goldman’s cut to its gold forecast signals that the “Fed easing” timeline is being pushed further out. In similar past regimes, delayed rate cuts typically strengthen the dollar and/or keep real yields higher for longer, which tends to reduce liquidity appetite and can weigh on high-beta assets like crypto.
Short term: If traders interpret later Fed cuts as fewer near-term risk-off hedges and a firmer rates complex, crypto can face downside volatility—especially if gold weakness coincides with stronger USD/real-rate expectations.
Long term: The report also says gold remains structurally constructive, meaning the bearish impact may be limited if investors still expect eventual policy normalization. If ETF flows and rates later turn supportive, the pressure on crypto could ease. Net effect: near-term risk sentiment likely negative, but not a regime break by itself.