Goldman: Yen carry trades at best in 20+ years—crypto tailwind

Published: 2026-07-10 05:27:21 |

Goldman Sachs says yen-funded carry trades are in their best conditions in over 20 years. The setup is driven by a widening USD/JPY gap as the Japanese yen weakens and the interest-rate differential with the US stays large. Key data: Goldman (updated forecast July 6, 2026) expects USD/JPY at 162 in three months, 163 in six months, and 165 in one year (vs a prior 155 target). The yen is near levels last seen about 40 years ago. Japan also intervened heavily: more than 11 trillion yen between April and May 2026, but results were limited. Why crypto traders should care: In recent years, carry trades have funneled liquidity into risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC). Analysts link sustained yen weakness to potential Bitcoin rallies, and argue the support could last into 2027 if the rate differential holds. This is not theoretical—an unwind in August 2024 triggered synchronized selling in Bitcoin and equities as leveraged positions were closed. What to watch: the Bank of Japan (BOJ) next move. Goldman’s thesis implicitly assumes gradual policy normalization. A faster-than-expected BOJ rate hike (a hawkish surprise) or a sudden risk-off shift would likely flip the carry trade tailwind into an ускорized drawdown for crypto, similar to the August 2024 stress episode.

Bullish

Goldman’s message is broadly bullish for crypto because it points to sustained yen weakness and a wide US–Japan rate gap—conditions that typically keep carry trades active and provide ongoing liquidity to risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC). If the “carry trades” environment persists, it can act as a tailwind for BTC via continued risk-taking demand. However, the news is not purely bullish. It explicitly highlights the main downside risk: a hawkish surprise from the Bank of Japan or a sudden shift to risk-off. The August 2024 unwind is the relevant precedent—when leveraged carry positioning reversed, BTC and equities sold together. That historical parallel suggests that traders should expect higher volatility around BOJ communications. Short term: market likely prices in a supportive macro backdrop while watching BOJ headlines; any hawkish data could trigger fast drawdowns. Long term: if policy normalization stays gradual (as Goldman assumes), carry trades could remain a structural liquidity channel, supporting broader uptrends; but a regime change (faster tightening) would likely cap rallies and increase correction risk.