Quantum risk to crypto: Google says Bitcoin encryption could be broken

Google researchers warn that the quantum risk to crypto is rising faster than earlier models. In a new blog post (via Seeking Alpha), they focus on Bitcoin’s cryptography assumptions, especially elliptic curve cryptography and the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP-256) that underpins wallet ownership and transaction signing. Google estimates that, with optimized Shor’s algorithm circuits, a quantum attack could become feasible with about 1,200–1,450 logical qubits and under 500,000 physical qubits—potentially measured in minutes on a sufficiently advanced system. That would materially reduce the resource gap versus prior estimates, while no immediate exploit is described. For traders, the quantum risk to crypto framing is likely to drive headline sentiment more than near-term fundamentals, keeping longer-horizon risk premiums elevated. Google points to a PQC (post-quantum cryptography) migration timeline around 2029, requiring broad coordination and protocol upgrades across decentralized networks. The firm says it’s working with partners including Coinbase, the Stanford Institute for Blockchain Research, and the Ethereum Foundation. Bottom line: quantum risk to crypto is not an attack today, but it strengthens the case for staying alert to timing and adoption of quantum-resistant cryptography.