Grayscale: BTC 30% Pullback ’Typical’ — Expects New Highs in 2026
Grayscale Research says Bitcoin’s recent ~30% pullback fits historical bull‑market behavior and does not signal a prolonged multi‑year bear market. In a Dec. 1 report the asset manager noted this is the ninth major drawdown of the current bull run and highlighted that since 2010 Bitcoin has experienced about 50 declines of 10%+ with an average peak‑to‑trough of ~30%. Grayscale expects new all‑time highs in 2026, arguing this cycle differs from past ones because of greater institutional participation (ETPs, corporate treasuries), no parabolic blow‑off, and supportive macro prospects. The firm points to put‑heavy option skew and digital‑asset treasuries trading at discounts as signs a short‑term bottom may be forming. Sector divergence in November saw privacy coins (e.g., ZEC, XMR) outperform while Grayscale’s AI crypto sector fell ~25%. New US ETP listings for XRP and DOGE broadened institutional access. Potential catalysts into 2026 include expected Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and bipartisan US legislation to clarify crypto market structure. Grayscale’s view: short‑term volatility remains, but long‑term holders are likely to benefit as fundamentals and valuations converge.
Bullish
Grayscale’s report frames the 30% BTC decline as a normal bull‑market drawdown rather than the start of a multi‑year bear market. Key bullish factors: (1) historical precedent—Bitcoin has frequently experienced 20–30% pullbacks within uptrends; (2) growing institutional participation via ETPs and corporate treasuries increases structural demand and reduces retail-only volatility; (3) macro tailwinds—expected Fed easing and a weaker dollar could boost demand for BTC as a non‑dollar store of value; (4) regulatory progress—bipartisan US market‑structure legislation would lower institutional friction. Short‑term indicators (put skew, treasury discounts) suggest a potential bottom and reduced speculative excess, which often precedes renewed inflows. Risks that could offset bullish bias include slower‑than‑expected rate cuts, regulatory setbacks, or macro shocks that dent risk appetite. Historically, similar patterns (large drawdown followed by consolidation and renewed rallies) occurred in 2013–14 and 2019–20 cycles when structural adoption expanded. For traders: expect elevated short‑term volatility and trading opportunities around relief rallies and re-tests of the bottom, while position sizing and longer‑dated exposure may be rewarded if Grayscale’s 2026 new‑high scenario plays out.